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Re: badog post# 924

Tuesday, 02/13/2018 4:18:39 PM

Tuesday, February 13, 2018 4:18:39 PM

Post# of 3433
Hi Badog. All can go by is what I've heard Chuck say on this issue, which is that supply/demand won't be in balance for at least three years after recreational legalization in Canada, and this assumes all projects move ahead on schedule. We already know that Aurora's has been delayed temporarily. Not sure about any of the others. I also believe that there will be some international distribution as well as more countries legalize recreational use (so far, the only other country I know of where it's federally legal for recreational use is Uruguay but I believe others will soon follow, if only for the tax revenue it will generate). Ultimately, could there be oversupply? Yeah, I guess anything's possible, but by the time that occurs, we should've already seen the bulk of the share price appreciation as CBW (and others) are in hyper-growth mode as the market is forward-looking. The other factor in this is that due to their business model and low costs/high margins, I'd think that CBW would have a pretty good amount of pricing flexibility whereas some producers may not, so even if oversupply were to occur, I'd think that they'd be in a decent position to be able to adapt to the lower pricing environment that would result until the supply/demand equation normalized.